Karl Lueders: The Active Rain Blog

This article came through The Denver Post this morning regarding a 46% percent drop in foreclosure notices in Q1 of 2009 over that same period in 2008.

Check it out here.

It says that while metro Denver has eased considerably, national activity has risen 23% and notorious foreclosure hot spots like Las Vegas have doubled from 2008.

I'm happy for headlines that have "foreclosures" and "drop" in them, but I'm thinking of a tsunami right now. As in, you're lying on the beach soaking up some rays and all of a sudden you watch the waterline suck back into the ocean at about 20 ft/second. Next thing you know, Q2 foreclosures are at a record high (Q1 2010, more likely).

I don't want to sound like a sore winner, but I'm dubious about this cycle.

There is a message here, bear with me... I cancelled my buyer appointments today as you will soon find out why.

I do miss these days. It reminds me of Chicago and why I love that city but will never go back. Currently, central Denver is getting pounded mercilessly by a sleet/snow mixture that should let up sometime next week. Last night it rained because it was too warm to snow, but now it's sticking. Denver is an odd town weather-wise. I read in USA Today how Denver gets backloaded with all of its snow in March and April,

which shouldn't be surprising, since the two of the three worst snowstorms I've ever experienced have been in March in Denver. Granted, I've only been here 10 years, but living here seems to validate one of my half-baked theories from my younger days.

I remember this one particular summit amongst my Chicago friends - that all-too-common conflagration where four or five of us would solve every problem thrown our way, only to realize that we didn't have the staff to delegate the implementation of any of these ingenious ideas. To get an idea of how long ago these summits occurred, one out of five people had a cell phone and the other four would laugh at that guy as he made weird gyrations trying to hear the person on the other end.

Anyway, I postulated that - I had no scientific backing, just 30 years of observation - that the seasons were oblivious to the calendar and that by 2045 (50 years from my proclamation) summer in the northern hemisphere would be more in line with the autumnal months and winter would start infringing on the traditional spring stretch. I had been seeing warmer Septembers and whiter Aprils for a while now, and it doesn't appear to resetting, and the idea of a white Christmas seems almost nostalgic, unless you live in Buffalo (or Denver, specifically).

Granted, this weather doesn't do us any favors as Realtors (I'm preaching to my Colorado brethren), but I'm beginning to think that while Denver's selling season doesn't have the sharp dip of the Eastern seaboard cities, we also shouldn't assume that the selling season begins after the Super Bowl ends. I've had several listings in the past three years get false-started on the market because prolonged snow storms have stymied their debut. Yes, when your sellers are ready to go, weather isn't much of a factor, but if you're teeing up a listing for maximum effect, May 1 appears to be a safer bet than March 1.

It can stop snowing anytime now...

Karl Lueders is a Denver-based Realtor who loves cold, snowy days just as much as his black labrador Sadie does. Except that Karl won't roll on his back in a three-foot snow drift. Find out more about Karl here or how Karl and Sadie are helping Denver's pet community stay healthy at The Goethe Fund. Look for this logo on future Karl posts:

Since my last look into our neighborhood's sales performance (2007-2008), I was able to conclude that while the rest of the world seemed to be drowning in sorrow, Driving Park Historic District was decidedly middle-of-the-road sales wise. I'll take normal over recession any day of the week, but that's pretty where we've been for the past 6 months, and that's where we appear to be right now, even after a few distressed sales.

Based on the latest sales data from Metrolist Inc., Denver, as a whole, has about 6 months worth of inventory currently for sale. What does 6 months of inventory actually involve? For example, within Driving Park Historic District, where I live, 17 homes sold in 2008. That comes out to 1.41 homes sold per month. Currently, we have 9 active listings in DPHD, which, divided by the average sales per month, puts us right at 6 months as time it will take to clear out our current inventory. In actuality, three homes have sold in DPHD so far this year: 571 High, 450 Williams and 484 Lafayette, which means we're slightly behind the 6 month curve, but the balance is there, which is good.

To get an idea of the houses that are currently for sale, go to my search site and check out the addresses listed in the chart below.

The average sale price isn't so much of an indicator of neighborhood performance as is the sale price - to - list price ratio. Currently, we are holding steady at 94% of list price (that's based on the last list price, sale price - to - original list price is around 90%, which is also normal, but shows the inevitable price drop). Disregard the average sale prices for 2009, as 571 High really threw off the balance, dropping nearly $500,000 between its original list price and eventual sale price.The reason why I don't look at sale price for DPHD is because we have houses that sell between $250k and upwards of $2 million within a 14-block area.

If you have any questions about the chart below or about this neighborhood, feel free to contact Karl Lueders at 720-971-8267. You can also reach him at his Web site, www.KarlSellsDenver.com. Karl lives in Driving Park Historic District on Humboldt St. The neighborhood runs from 4th Ave to 6th Ave, and from Marion to High St. It is surrounded by Alamo Placita, Seventh Avenue and Country Club historic neighborhoods.

If you're interested in the historic significance of the Driving Park Historic District, give me a call or drop me a line. You can find more sales data at Denver Real and Beyond.